MARC AGRONIN: In 2011, the first baby boomers turned 65. In 2031, these same baby boomers will begin turning 85, and a bubble of supposedly frail and cognitively impaired elders will begin swelling the nursing-home population.
Or will they?
While it’s true that by 2030 the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that 20{9b8438f5bc691300781eae7abc85395c1261bdad65db9476774cd2cf5af6cbf6} of the population will be 65 and above, nearly double the current statistic, it is not clear that these aging boomers will be in the same state of physical and cognitive decline as comparable elders today. Given current trends in medical research, health care and technology, it’s likely that the future long-term care facility will be less facility and more home. Let me explain my predictions for the future.